EVERY CONFLICT HAS AN END.......!!!

"Every conflict has a beginning and an end"
- Dr Kumar Rupesinghe

Dr Kumar Rupesinghe, has always been one of the most colourful and controversial figures in the local NGO scene. To many on the opposite side of the political divide, Dr Rupesinghe is the ‘Godfather’ of the local NGO sector - the man who makes things happen . A veteran peace activist, Dr Rupesinghe speaks to C.A.Chandraprema on the present state of the war, and the claims that the government has been making, in the context of international experiences in combating guerilla movements. He also touches on the developments in the east after the provincial council was instituted, and comments on the controversy surrounding the entry of Karuna Amman to parliament.

Q. There is this belief that the thirty year ethnic war is coming to an end. From your experience in conflict resolution, how would you see this?

A. If you study the history of civil wars, around 1988, there were around 32 civil wars. Civil wars are defined as wars with a casualty rate of less than 1000. Today, the number of civil wars have dropped significantly and we have only 16. Sixteen conflicts were negotiated and settled, of the remaining sixteen eight are under negotiation and there will most probably be settlements reached there as well. Then we have eight civil still continuing. These are what I would call ‘deadly conflicts’, which have spilled over into the 21st century. Sri Lanka happens to be one of them. There is also another theory in peace research, which says, that every conflict has a beginning and an end. No conflict lasts for ever. There was a time when we used to talk of a 100 years war – they don’t happen anymore. Normally a life cycle of a war is about 30 years. I suppose this is one reason why people are suggesting that this is the end of the war. But what I feel is that whether it is going to be 30 years or 40 years, will depend on the battlefield situation. I don’t think you can come to conclusions by statistical data alone. There is another theory which says that people come to a settlement when there is a ‘hurting stalemate’. But this particular war, has confounded that theory. So while there has been a continuous hurting stalemate, the war has continued. The Sri Lankan conflict is unique in confounding these kinds of prognostications. Whether it is a 30 year war or it is a hurting stalemate, or whether one side is going to lose and the other side is going to win, all these prognostications have been challenged by events in the battlefield. The second point that I want to make is that good generals never make forecasts and publicly pronounce deadlines. That is not the sign of a good general. Good generals concentrate on the battlefield. They leave the propaganda to someone else, like Mr Rambukwelle in this government. In this war, all predictions of generals have been falsified by events. I remember a time when Anuruddha Ratwatte used to say that the war was going to end in the next three months. In a conversation that I had with President Chandrika Kumaratunga around 1998, she was very confident of victory. She said that the LTTE was very weak and that there were only around 3000 cadres left and that it was question of three months and at the next Independence Day she was going to announce the defeat of the LTTE. I challenged her, and I said that I don’t think that she is correct. I told her that the art of the guerilla has been deception with regard to numbers. They have always given out an impression of weakness which in fact is a tactical ploy, which they have used to great effect by raising false hopes on the other side. But President Kumaratunga did not agree with me and she was overconfident of victory. Six months after that came Mulleitivu, followed by Elephant Pass and eventually the debacle in Katunayake. Now, I am not saying that the conduct of this war is the same as the one before. There are certain differences which we have to recognize. Here you have a command and control structure, which is unified under a single command, where there is not too much infighting (publicly at least) within the armed forces. There is infighting going on silently, but it doesn’t come to the surface. So there is a single unified command from the defense secretary right down the line. Number two, I assumed that they don’t work on deadlines and political imperatives. That was big mistake of the former regime. The defense minister worked according to a political agenda, which was inimical to the battlefield commanders. When the battlefield commanders said that the ‘Jaya Sikurui’ operation was not feasible, the government still wanted to go ahead for political imperatives, and 10,000 soldiers died. But when it comes to political imperatives, it seems that the President is also making pronouncements – that the war is going to end soon, at the end of the year. And general Fonseka is making a lot of pronouncements, to the BBC, to Canadian newspapers that the war would be over in six months. Then he extended the deadline and he continues to extend the deadline. Now he says that the conventional capacity of the LTTE will be destroyed, but not the guerilla and terrorist capability and that that will remain for the next two decades. This he said to the BBC. Then he says "we can’t set deadlines" That is what I assumed that this government would not do. Thirdly, there are other factors like an improvement in the air strike capability of the air force. Precision bombing has been one of the new qualities that have been brought into the war. The planes have been able to fly very low, because they know that the LTTE has nothing to attack the planes with. So they have been able to study the maps and be very precise in their target. The Navy has also been able to intercept LTTE boats and they have been able to monitor the seas with the help of Indian Intelligence. So the flow of arms has been reduced largely as a result of India’s involvement. There is another important feature in that ground troops have been deployed from several fronts. They also deploy small groups to do the fighting without committing a large number of troops. So these are some of the new developments.


Q. From what you say, one may assume that the only criticism you have of the way in which the war is being conducted is that deadlines are being announced from time to time. But generally speaking, the war is being prosecuted successfully…

A. No, this is not what I mean. The concept that I would like to challenge is, what exactly is the successful prosecution of the war? They are gaining territory. But gaining territory has been a continuous feature of this war. Killinochchi was captured twice before and then retaken by the LTTE. What does one mean by winning a war in modern warfare? I would say that the very fact of destroying the conventional command capability, may in the end encourage the emergence of disparate groups which don’t have a single central command unit, but will operate on their own like what the Al Queda has done. They would be able to inflict heavy damage on the country. So as general Fonseka says once the war shifts from a conventional war to a guerilla war or terrorist war, the nature of war changes, but the war itself does not change. So winning territory is not the issue. The issue is winning the hearts and minds of a beleaguered community.


Q. In the east, in 2005, most Tamil people voted for the UNP. But at the recent EPC elections, most Tamils voted for the Pilliayan group which is allied to the UPFA. So to some extent the government has been winning the hearts and minds of the eastern Tamils. If you take the Muslim vote, that too is now split between the UNP and the government. So obviously, somebody has been winning hearts and minds in the east.

A. I am not prepared to go into the manner in which that election was conducted. All that we have to do is to look at the three reports of the monitoring committees. There is no doubt in anybody’s mind that there was widespread impersonation. Therefore that is not the litmus test. The litmus test is whether the promise of a liberated east has been accomplished. After twenty years, we now have a Provincial Council. The litmus test will be whether power has been devolved to the Provincial Council, and whether the Provincial Council is actually developing their area and brining relief to the people. One of the great promises of the election was to give power to the Provincial Council. The test is still on. There have been three meetings of the EPC. The chief minister has not yet given the ‘throne speech’ or the development plan for the east. The LTTE has now re-entered the east in small numbers. We now often hear of the killing of TMVP cadres, in the heart of Batticaloa. I must say that the central government has been engaged in a very large development program, the building of roads, infrastructure, bridges etc. These are plus points, there’s no question about that. There is a serious effort at deploying resources to the east. But with regard to most of these big development projects, we have to wait and see whether the benefits will come to the people. Why I am saying that is because most of the contracts are given to contractors in Colombo. So there is a question mark over whether local resources are being used, and whether the local people are benefiting.


Q. The subjective state of satisfaction of the eastern leadership is also important. If you take Pillaiyan, he seems to be quite satisfied. If you take Karuna, he took oaths in parliament and everybody was smiling. So it was a picture perfect kind of situation in the east. Then as you yourself said, there is development taking place in the east. For some of those large projects there may not be the contractors with the requisite expertise in the east, which is why people from Colombo are being employed. But the people of the area will benefit by having good roads and bridges. During the EPC elections, Sirasa TV went to all the electorates and interviewed a cross section of people. When they interviewed Tamils, not one asked for liberation or equal rights. All they wanted were tangible things like roads, schools and bridges. In my political column, I wrote that if this is what the people of the east want, then the government is going to win. One thing that Mr Karu Jayasuriya told me in an interview, is that Pillaiyan and the new Mayoress of Batticaloa had come to see him with development projects that they themselves had generated, and he was highly impressed. They had got the help of retired government officials in Batticaloa to prepare the project proposals, and things were beginning to look up.

A. There is no question about that; there is an impressive development program. The litmus test for me, is whether we are going to have an efficiently run provincial council with devolved powers where the abilities of the very able bureaucrats there are used for planning the development of the area. It is only then that there will be development from the grassroots upwards. Then there is still a long way to go with regard to the administration, which is in Sinhala. One thing that I have always said is that the administration of the province must be in Tamil. I can see that more and more Tamil and Muslim officers are being recruited. But Sinhalese is still the language that is predominantly used in the administration. I do see some development in this regard, but what I say is accelerate it, so that the people will be able to use their own language. There is also the outstanding issue of human rights. The level of abductions and killings is still serious. While it has been controlled in Colombo, and in Jaffna, the east still continues to be turbulent. There has been a significant drop in child recruitment, and that is a plus point. So what we have is a mixed picture. The goal should be to make the eastern province a centerpiece in development in human rights and political devolution. If the government is able to achieve it, then it will also persuade the people in the north. If there is to be a political solution, there has to be at least the full implementation of the 13th amendment.



Q. Aren’t there signs that things are moving in that direction?

A. We have to see that in the implementation. The president has overall executive power in this country. The 13th amendment is law; the JVP is no longer a factor. The JHU is insignificant. Therefore the President can use his executive authority and reallocate the budget, reduce the size of the central government. That is the change that will be expected. It will be a major confidence building exercise. Eventually, this is about winning the hearts and minds of the people. One has to stop profiling the minorities. When very high powered people make statements to the effect that the minorities should not make demands, that is not going to inspire confidence in the minorities.


Q. With regard to building confidence, are you in favour of Karuna coming into parliament?

A. In one sense, Karuna Amman is a war criminal. He has violated the laws of war, he has killed over 600 policemen, then he has violated – not he personally – but the LTTE at that time, has violated many of the laws of war. Even after he left the LTTE, he violated many of the laws of war. The violations are crimes against humanity. There is a dilemma. What do you do with a person like this? The government has taken the position that like Douglas Devanada, like PLOTE and the others, he has to be rehabilitated.



Q. So what do you think about that?

A. We have to wait and see.

Q. If you call Karuna a war criminal, isn’t Prabhakaran also a war criminal?

A. He too is a war criminal.


Q. But by that token, we will never be able to have a negotiated settlement with Prabhakaran as the whole purpose of negotiations will be to hand over a part of the country to a war criminal as has been done in the east? The north will be handed over to Prabahkarn so we will have to object to that as well…

A. I am not objecting to it. If this is an attempt to integrate the TMVP into the mainstream, fine! I have no problem with that. If this is the cost that we have to pay for bringing these people into the mainstream, then I have no problem.



Q. Some people object to these ex-LTTE members coming into the mainstream because they are no longer with the LTTE. Had they still been in the LTTE, then despite anything that they may have done, we will be told to negotiate with them. Karuna’s main crime was that he left the LTTE.

A. As far as I am concerned, in the east there are positive signs which I have indicated, and there are negative signs which I have also indicated. An important development in the east is that there is a mechanism for conflict resolution in the Provincial Council. Today, Pillaiyan and Hisbulla, by working together as a team, have been able to settle a lot of fledgling conflicts between Tamils and Muslims.


Q. Isn’t that a sign of maturity that people never expected in people like Pillaiyan and Karuna?

A. It is a sign of maturity and also that they both realized that for their very political existence, they cannot engage in ethnic politics. They realized that if they are to have a win-win situation, they had to work together and be seen to be working together in a joint partnership in the development of that area.

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