CEASEFIRE OR ALL OUT WAR.......???

Ceasefire or all out war?
by Kumar Rupesinghe

The battles in the Vanni war theatre are now being pursued relentlessly by both parties and there has been heavy casualties reported from both sides. These battles are being fought despite heavy rains. The government would like to hoist the Sri Lankan flag in Killinochi and proclaim to the world that the headquarters of the LTTE has been taken. The LTTE leader has proclaimed in an Indian newspaper that Killinochi will never fall. The government was unable to capture Killinochi as proclaimed on the day of Prabahakaran's speech. Interested parties are watching anxiously as to whether the LTTE can withstand the assault on a beleaguered town empty of its people. So it seems that for both parties much is at stake and both are prepared to inflict heavy casualties on the other.

The effects of the war are terrible. There are large numbers of (between 200,000 to 300,000) who are displaced. Many do not have a place to live and live under trees. Food supplies are irregular. Children are deprived of their education. Images of the human suffering does not reach the people in the South. The media rarely provides pictures of the pain, despair and suffering of a large numbers of people. Instead they are fed with hourly sound bites of the war. Civilians are once again caught up in the internecine war. The government would like to encourage a mass exodus of people from LTTE controlled areas to government held areas such as Vavunia. But there is only a trickle of people making their way into government held areas. People are naturally reluctant to leave. Some may be forcibly held by the LTTE but this factor alone cannot account for the reluctance to leave by such a large number of people. Most probably they fear what awaits them. Many of the families have their children enlisted by the LTTE, or they have kith and kin involved in the fighting. Recruitment to the LTTE has been intensified. Some may feel that it is better to die rather than face persecution from the military. Stories abound of the camps that are located in Vavuniya and the travails that refugees have to go through. Civilians thus are helpless and caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. As I have repeatedly argued "war" is not merely about winning territory but about winning the hearts of minds people. Here, the government has dismally failed.

The sufferings of the people in the Vanni are instantly communicated to the world by the by the LTTE. Tamil Nadu, Delhi, and other cities such as Toronto, London, New York, Melbourne as a propaganda ploy by the LTTE. Tamil Nadu has risen with one single voice and has called for a ceasefire. The Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu intends to leave with a representative group of people to New Delhi to meet the Indian Prime Minister.


Call for a Ceasefire.

A call for a Ceasefire came from the most unlikely quarters. "There is no other alternative but to go for a ceasefire if India continues to pressurize Sri Lanka" says media spokesman for Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) Nishantha Sri Warnasinghe speaking to a private TV channel recently. This statement by a responsible member of the JHU caused an uproar in Parliament forcing their Minister, Champika Ranawake, to categorically state that the JHU had not called for a Ceasefire. But maybe the cat is now out of the bag and as they say there is no smoke without fire. Colombo is agog with speculation as to the veracity of the statement by the media spokesman for the JHU. Was this an inspired leak to test the tide and public opinion? Is Indian pressure on the Sri Lankan state biting? Only time will tell.


The role of India.

The extent of mass mobilization of all the South Indian political parties has taken the world by surprise. There is now once again a resurgence Tamil nationalism with some Hindu parties preparing for armed struggle. The mass demonstrations, fasts, pickets and one day hartals are now an everyday occurrence in South India. In South India there has been unanimity of purpose and resolve by all political parties to demand a ceasefire. The government of Sri Lanka never expected this massive show of strength and agitation from India. Protests were not restricted to South India but to other states, and even in Delhi where there were large demonstrations by students. Secular parties such as the Communist party are now leading the agitation. The BJP has gone one step further and promises to resolve the Tamil National question in Sri Lank within 6 months if it comes to power. They say that a solution should be nothing less than a Federal solution. The frenzy of support for a Ceasefire can be explained by many factors. The most important is that there will be general elections in India scheduled for March/April of next year. Each political party is positioning itself and Sri Lanka will become a campaign issue during the elections. In this skirmish the Communist parties which shared power with the Congress party and subsequently left the Congress alliance as a result of the Indian government's deal with the USA has seized the Sri Lankan Tamil Question as a major campaign issue. The BJP is also waiting in the wings. It is also getting deeply embroiled in the Sri Lankan conflict. There has been a resurgence of Muslim extremism in India as demonstrated by the attacks in Mumbai which killed so many.

The LTTE on the other hand continues to send lurid pictures of human suffering through its communication channels and they have extensively used these channels to portray images of "genocide" against the Tamils. Although this argument is not convincing for the Sri Lankan government does send food to the affected regions, the power of the images are convincing. Further it is also a fact the LTTE cells have been patiently working in South India to form alliances with strategic sectors of Tamil Nadu, particularly the media and the film industry. Over five films sympathetic to the LTTE has been shown to mass audiences in India produced and directed by leading film directors in the past few years. Sri Lanka's humanitarian crisis has now captured the imagination of the South Indian populace and the Sri Lankan government is helpless and its beleaguered High Commission in Delhi and its Councilor office in Chennai is unable to handle this tidal wave of support. There is therefore a conjuncture of events which coincide to make Sri Lanka's Tamil national question an issue in the coming months. It is not going to go away or disappear from the radar screen.


Call for negotiations.

In the recent past there have been demands made in India by spokespersons of the Indian National Congress that the government should begin discussions with the Tamil National Alliance(TNA). It is argued by those in India that the TNA as the representatives in Parliament should be brought into a dialogue as to the contours of a political solution. There is speculation as to whether the TNA should be invited for the Interim Administration as a first step towards a power sharing arrangement. The TNA on the other hand continues to lobby Tamil Nadu to pressure the government. There is no likelihood of negotiations in the immediate future and by January there could be a possibility of a cessation of hostilities.

The government on the other hand is also facing multiple crises. The second wave of the recession is now hitting Sri Lanka with export commodity prices such as tea, rubber and coconut crashing. It will also affect the export of our minor crops. The foolhardy hedging of our oil prices has been a disaster and the government is facing the humiliation of significant losses on its dollar accounts. The future of our textile industry is at stake. The tea small holder industry is severely affected. The cost of living is rising and inflation cannot be controlled. It is in this light that the government is considering elections, and mulling the question whether it should be a few more Provincial Councils or a general election. In the light of this dilemma the government has to act and act fast. Further delays, will only make matters worse.

Whether there will be a Ceasefire will be determined by the military realities on the ground, coupled with pressures put up by India. Agreeing to a Ceasefire is difficult for the government which has put all its stakes on a military victory. But it may be that both sides may want some respite from a grueling war.


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