There are already so many people employed and yet not actually working, and the Government continues to announce plans for further expansion!!!

Waiting for spring to come
By Kath Noble


A lot of promises have been made to the people of the Northern Province since the end of the conflict. The Government launched its Uthuru Wasanthaya programme with a great deal of fanfare, and billions of rupees have been spent. We assume that work is being done. New plans are announced on a regular basis. However, it remains to be seen whether all this money and activity will result in the kind of economic takeoff the region so desperately needs.

This was the subject of a very interesting debate led by well known researcher Muttukrishna Sarvananthan at the Indian Cultural Centre last week. The text of his presentation was serialised in this newspaper.

He emphasised a general concern about the Sri Lankan economy that I think bears repeating.

Economic growth shouldn’t be an end in itself. Whether Mahinda Rajapaksa achieves his target of 8% growth per annum up to the end of his second term is far less important than how he goes about the task. Continuing the trend set in the last five years would have dangerous repercussions, given its focus on expanding the public sector. While the Government has doubled per capita income from $1,000 to $2,000, it has also doubled public debt. A lot of money has been spent both in recruitment and on salary increases. Unless something can be done about productivity, this isn’t going to generate funds to pay back the loans Mahinda Rajapaksa has taken when they fall due.

It is stupid to get excited about statistics without looking into what they mean, in other words. We need to do a bit more thinking on these issues.

Politicians will never tell us the whole story, only what shows their party in the best light. What’s more, their focus is on the here and now. They have very little incentive to worry about sustainability. As a rule, just looking as though they are achieving something is enough to satisfy them.

In a way, this is the cause of many of the specific problems Muttukrishna Sarvananthan highlighted.

The Government actually wants people to be dependent on its munificence. If they regard it as their saviour - or at least the provider of the majority of the goods and services they need - then they may well vote for it.

Of course, there are a number of things the administration really has to do.

Infrastructure has to be rebuilt. The conflict brought massive destruction to pretty much all of the Northern Province, and for many places this came on top of years of neglect and decay. Roads need repairing, as do schools and hospitals. Water supply and irrigation facilities have to be improved and the power grid has to be expanded.

However, there is no reason for the permanently loss-making Sri Lanka Transport Board to run buses to Jaffna, when there are plenty of companies and individual entrepreneurs who could do as good a job. Similarly, the Air Force has experience in running flights, but it need not do so when there are private operators ready to step in. As for the Army setting up tea shops along the A9, I don’t think I’ve ever heard anything so ridiculous. Newly resettled people could easily do this while they are waiting to go back to work in their fields, with a little assistance. Likewise, the state-owned Mercantile Bank of Sri Lanka should be focusing on giving loans to people who are trying to restart or expand their businesses after the conflict, not spending time and money building a hotel in Nallur.

One doesn’t need to be a committed private sector development enthusiast to understand that there is something amiss with these initiatives.

Indeed, we are not talking about economic growth in just any part of the country. This is a region that was held back due to the conflict. The causes of stagnation may overlap with those seen elsewhere, but they are not the same.

The focus has to be much more on unleashing the potential of the people themselves.

Bradman Weerakoon, who was one of the other speakers at the Indian Cultural Centre debate, made some decidedly condescending remarks about the industrious nature of Tamils in support of this argument. But stereotypes aside, he was right. People of whatever ethnicity - Sri Lankan or otherwise - will do a pretty good job of looking after their own future if they are given the chance.


This means involving them in the process.

One of the most important and urgent tasks in the Northern Province is the reconstruction of houses, given the numbers that were reduced to little more than rubble during the conflict. This is something that newly resettled people should be encouraged to do. They just need money and support in acquiring materials. Without turning the exercise into a bureaucratic nightmare, the Government should also play a role in ensuring that vulnerable groups like widows and orphans - of whom it would be silly not to expect large numbers - are coping.

Above all, people need to know what help they are going to get and when they should expect it.

This directs us to what I think is an even more relevant criticism of the Uthuru Wasanthaya programme. It is highly centralised, with decisions being made in Colombo or by its appointed representatives, none of whom are locals.

Information on what is planned is simply not available on the ground.

This must be particularly disturbing for those who remain IDPs. Having lived through a year of uncertainty in camps, during which period they were for some unknown reason told as little as possible about what was going to happen to them, many of them still have no idea. They have to just wait and hope. It is completely stupid, when the Government could easily decide on a timetable and the benefits they are to be given and publicise it.

More generally, lack of confidence in the policy framework is behind the delay we see on the part of many Tamils originally from the Northern Province but now resident elsewhere in the country or abroad in coming back to start work.

The illogical restrictions that Muttukrishna Sarvananthan noted in his presentation clearly don’t help either. Maintaining a High Security Zone where by all accounts it is not needed - in the middle of the city - seems particularly dumb, when all efforts are being made to demonstrate that the situation is getting back to normal. Likewise, there would appear to be no sensible reason for insisting on clearance from the Defence Ministry for commercial goods to be transported to Jaffna and for people without Sri Lankan passports to enter the peninsula.

Such things generate suspicion. After a long conflict, it is hardly surprising that people fear the intentions of the Government, but this natural tendency is exacerbated by its failure to include them in decision-making processes.

It is an environment in which the private sector is bound to hesitate.

With the administration showing little awareness of the tasks on which it should be concentrating its efforts and even less interest in facilitating the work of others, this is rather worrying. Funds can very easily be wasted or at least not spent in the most effective way.

Of course, this situation could be significantly improved - if undoubtedly not completely solved - with stronger leadership at the provincial level.

All the speakers at the Indian Cultural Centre debate were careful to stress that they were focusing only on the economy and not on politics. But of course these subjects cannot be separated. And they shouldn’t be. How decisions are made and by whom is of vital importance. Avoiding mention of the exclusion of MPs and other elected representatives from the Northern Province - even members of the ruling coalition - in the effort to generate an economic takeoff, as Muttukrishna Sarvananthan did, simply will not do.

Both the UPFA and the UNP took this route in the election, it is true. But they didn’t win in the areas we are talking about.

Politicians from the region should be given the opportunity to demonstrate that limited devolution of the kind that is already in the Constitution can actually work, if the Government wants to stop people dreaming of even greater autonomy.

Involving a range of actors from all the main parties in the Northern Province would help in avoiding the obsession displayed with the public sector. Not all of them would have something to gain.

Returning to the broader question about the direction of the Sri Lankan economy, Muttukrishna Sarvananthan was right to draw attention to the problems that surely lie ahead if Mahinda Rajapaksa persists with the course he set during his first term. The public sector is important, but it cannot be allowed to grow at such a tremendous rate without any consideration of the implications. We know that it is a problem. There are already so many people employed and yet not actually working, and the Government continues to announce plans for further expansion. Eventually, it is going to end in a crisis, especially when the burden of pensions hits.

This issue deserves much more attention than it is currently getting.

It is almost as vital to the future of the Northern Province as what is being done under the Uthuru Wasanthaya programme. The Government can only go on doing work for as long as there is money available, after all.

kathnoble99@gmail.com


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